Methodology

This project uses an outcomes-only framework with 10 weighted factors. Each term gets a raw value per factor, then values are winsorized (p5/p95), percentile-ranked against all terms since 1970, and converted to 0-100 scores.

Scoring window offset: loading setting.

How Scoring Works

• Scoring window: loading setting.
• Step 1: Compute each factor's raw term metric (average, change, CAGR, or return).
• Step 2: Winsorize each factor distribution at the 5th and 95th percentile.
• Step 3: Convert to percentile score (higher-is-better or lower-is-better direction).
• Step 4: Combine factor scores with fixed weights into an overall 0-100 score.
• Step 5: Convert overall score to letter grade.

Category Definitions

• Economic Growth (15)
  Real GDP per capita CAGR across the term. Higher means stronger per-person economic expansion.
  Source: FRED `A939RX0Q048SBEA` (BEA-origin).
• Inflation (15)
  Average year-over-year CPI inflation during the term. Lower means prices were more stable.
  Source: FRED `CPIAUCSL` (BLS-origin).
• Jobs / Labor Market (15)
  Average unemployment rate during the term. Lower means tighter labor market conditions.
  Source: FRED `UNRATE` (BLS-origin).
• Fiscal Balance (10)
  Average federal deficit as percent of GDP. Lower deficit burden scores higher.
  Source: FRED `FYFSGDA188S` (OMB/CBO-origin via FRED), plus Treasury Fiscal Data context.
• Debt Burden (10)
  Change in debt-to-GDP over the term. Smaller increase (or decline) scores higher.
  Source: FRED `GFDEGDQ188S`.
• Income / Wages (10)
  Median household income CAGR across the term. Higher means faster household income growth.
  Source: FRED `MEFAINUSA672N` (Census-origin).
• Poverty / Inequality (5)
  Change in poverty rate over the term. Lower increase (or larger decrease) scores higher.
  Source: FRED `HSTPOVARAPBPP` (Census-origin).
• Markets (5)
  Real (inflation-adjusted) S&P return over the term. Higher means stronger market performance after inflation.
  Source: `SPX_STOOQ` (Stooq fallback) and/or FRED `SP500`, deflated by FRED `CPIAUCSL`.
• External Balance (5)
  Current account balance as percent of GDP (term average). Less negative or positive balances score higher.
  Source: FRED `USABCAGDPBP6` primary; fallback ratio from FRED `BOPBCA` and `GDP`.
• Public Consent (10)
  Average presidential net approval (approval minus disapproval) when available, otherwise average approval. Higher means stronger public support.
  Source: FiveThirtyEight approval files with UCSB American Presidency Project fallback parsing.

Grading

• A: 86-100
• B: 71-85
• C: 56-70
• D: 41-55
• F: 0-40

Primary Sources

• FRED macro series
• U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data snapshot for fiscal context
• FiveThirtyEight approval data with UCSB fallback parsing